IT technology adoption by commercial organizations is driven by economic forces. In this (2004) US election year, investment climate is supposed to be the best ever in George Bush's presidency.
References supporting a positive outlook for US/Worldwide IT investments
Globalization survives by tourism and tech http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20040224-064523-3982r
References supporting a neutral or negative outlook for US/Worldwide IT investments
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Discussions
Are there good examples of companies switching away from the use of Mainframe in recent years? Please AnswerMe.
See
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CompTIA paper on third world development link to IT investments at http://www.softwarechoice.org/download_files\Peru_Policy.pdf
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What's the IT replacement cycle? March2002 article at http://www.computerworld.com/managementtopics/management/story/0,10801,69058,00.html
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Abstract of DETERMINANT FACTORS OF INFORMATION TECNOLOGY ADOPTION BY ORGANIZATIONS available at http://arago.cprost.sfu.ca/~smith/conference/viewabstract.php?id=1244&cf=4