Agile Vs Speculative Project Management

last modified: August 14, 2010

Every traditional development team I worked with, in spite of numerous procedures set in order to ascertain progress, seems to act as if reflection should always take precedence over observation. Lacking a better guide, most of their decisions give privilege to speculations about the future of the project.

At the outset of construction

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During construction

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In the midst of the application life

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By contrast, agile teams seem to keep intact during the whole project their refuse of directing it with indication taken from any kind of speculation about the future :

Maybe I'm just comparing very bad traditional development teams with very good agile teams, after all. --ChristopheThibaut

At work here is a mental trap that developers are prone to; all creators really. Software development can be seen as a kind of disciplined speculation. "If I add this code to the existing (potentially empty) system, it should do this here." Substitute "I speculate that it will" for "it should."

Accurate speculation about the future - what ought to work - can be very valuable. There was a huge payoff to speculating correctly about the dot-com boom in the US, and more if you predicted right when it would end.

The interesting thing to me is the trade-off between speculation and feedback. Sometimes speculation is all you've got. The other challenge is costs. Some things are very expensive to change, and also relatively stable. Speculation is a pretty good solution there. -- JamesBullock


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